The Treasury bill market is expected to face continued pressure in the near term, with yields likely to trend upward despite signs of disinflation.
According to a new update from Databank Research, investors are expected to remain cautious until the 2026 Budget provides clearer guidance on the government’s borrowing strategy and fiscal consolidation, which will be crucial to restoring a more balanced demand-supply dynamic in the debt market.
Last week’s auction highlighted these challenges, marking the fourth consecutive undersubscription.
The Treasury raised GHS 4.50 billion against a target of GHS 6.83 billion, representing a 34% shortfall. This covered only 66% of planned issuance and 68% of upcoming maturities, which total GHS 6.65 billion.
Yields on T-bills rose across the curve, reflecting tight market conditions. The 91-day and 182-day bills climbed 11 basis points to 10.93% and 12.61%, respectively, while the 364-day bill gained 7 basis points to 13.02%.
Databank Research notes that until the 2026 Budget offers clarity on fiscal policy and borrowing plans, investor caution is likely to persist, keeping upward pressure on yields despite ongoing disinflation.
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